Containerization adoption
I have just finished making a (simple) graph of the total volume of containers handled in all ports listed in Containerization International Yearbook. In technology/science studies, there is a common wisdom that technology adoption takes the form of an S-curve. Initially actors are slow to implement a new innovation. Then, when it’s superiority over previous approaches has been demonstrated, it is quickly adopted and innovation takes place rapidly. Then, as the technology matures and saturates the market, growth slows down again. If this classic case applies to containerization, the technology has not yet fully matured. The graph below shows an initial slow growth phase followed by a period of rapid growth, but there is no tapering off. This is presumably some combination of ongoing innovation, though that seems to be slowing) and the penetration of the technology into new markets (as the global economy grows with it).
- Total volume of containers handled (globally)
Now, I realize, I need to calculate these figures for individual countries and regions.
Seems like you really have two different variables: adoption of containerization, and growth in international trade.
It might be more interesting if you could determine (at least roughly) the share of global trade that was containerized. You might find a different trend that is more in line with the S-curve model.
A good idea. Perhaps I’ll turn the figures into an index and divide them by an index of global trade volume. That said, the general idea behind the S-curve, as I understand it, is that total volume should reflect the impact of the technology on economic growth and that as the technology saturates the economic sphere, it’s growth should slow. So the volume per unit of trade would be measuring change in modal share rather than technological diffusion.
Hm… I would still be inclined to at least account for population growth. Wouldn’t you expect trade volumes to increase as population increases, even without any change in technology? (Unless the population increases are substantially dependent on the technology to be viable, I guess.)